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Lay Summary
Projections of numbers of unpaid carers of older people 
Katarina Swanson and Raphael Wittenberg
NIHR PRU Showcase Webinar, 5 April 2022

This study concerns the future provision of unpaid care by family and friends to older people (65+) in England. An earlier study found that the supply of unpaid care is unlikely to keep pace with rising need for care.


The aims of this study are to consider what factors are likely to affect future supply of unpaid care and how trends in those factors will affect future numbers of carers. We have developed a simulation model to produce these projections under different assumptions about trends in factors, such as the age, gender and ethnicity distribution of the population. We have used data from the Health Survey for England (2015-2017) on the provision of unpaid care and data from the Office for National Statistics on the future population.


Our analysis will project the numbers of unpaid carers in total and by the type and intensity of care they provide.  


Raphael Wittenberg,

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