BACKGROUND

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Whether supply of unpaid care for older people rises in line with demand for care will be a crucial factor affecting future demand for formal social care services and associated expenditure.

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AIMS

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• Examine what factors are likely to affect future supply of unpaid care for older people and whether available evidence suggests likely changes in the prevalence of those factors.

• Model scenarios investigating the impact of possible changes in these factors on the future supply of unpaid care, the gap between demand for and supply of unpaid care and the impact on demand for formal care services and associated expenditure

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METHODS

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This scoping project will include consultation with stakeholders, and is focusing on supply of unpaid care. It is considering what factors are likely in principle to affect future supply of unpaid care, whether available evidence suggests likely changes in the prevalence of those factors, what evidence is available on the size of the impact of those factors on supply of unpaid care and what data are available to conduct modelling of the relationship between those factors and supply of unpaid care.

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Depending on the findings, scenarios will be modelled investigating the impact of possible changes in these factors on projected future supply of unpaid care, the future gap between demand for and supply of unpaid care and the future impact on demand for formal care services and associated expenditure. To conduct this modelling, an existing model of the supply of unpaid care to older people will be update through multi-variable analyses of Health Survey for England (HSE) and potentially other data on unpaid caring, to examine the characteristics of carers and of those for whom they provide care and the association between those characteristics and intensity of care provided.