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Enhancing capacity for producing long-term care projections and investigating trends in disability in old age and their implications for future need for long-term care


CPEC has developed over the years a number of models for producing projections of demand for long-term care and associated expenditure. These models have been used extensively for producing projections for Spending Review, reviews of the social care funding system and OBR fiscal sustainability analyses. 


  • Review the aggregate projections models to improve them where data permit and make them more user-friendly where feasible.

  • Keep the aggregate projections models up-to-date, by incorporating the most recent relevant ONS, NHS Digital, Health Survey for England (HSE) and other relevant data.

  • Investigate the impact on projected future demand for and expenditure on adult social care of different scenarios for future trends in disability rates in old age. 


This project is reviewing the existing CPEC aggregate projections models to improve them where data permit, make them more user-friendly where feasible and produce a user-guide to assist policy analysts to use them. 

The models will be kept up-to-date by checking the availability of new data from official statistics and national surveys. The models will periodically incorporate new ONS population projections, NHS Digital data on social care and Health Survey for England (HSE) data on needs and receipt of care by older people. New analyses will be carried out to explore the relationships between need for care, receipt of unpaid care and use of care services, and updated projections of numbers of younger adults with care needs, especially numbers with learning disabilities, will be incorporated.

Current base case assumptions and scenarios relating to trends in the drivers of demand for care and in the unit costs of care will be reviewed. 


Further evidence-based scenarios on future trends in disability rates in old age will be developed and the implications of those trends for future demand for long-term care and associated expenditure will be examined. 


This project is being undertaken in collaboration with the NIHR Older People and Frailty (OPFPRU) Policy Research Unit.


Raphael Wittenberg (Lead), Bo Hu, Amritpal Rehill


  • Start Date: 1 January 2019

  • End date: 30 June 2021

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